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Illustrative People's Energy Plan modelling results

Stakeholders around the Illustrative People’s Energy Plan (IPEP) process made it clear that the modelling process should be consultative, transparent, and fact-based. The summary document provides just a taste of the information that is available for guiding social and governmental decision-making around optimal scenarios 

We have provided as much detail as possible on all inputs and outputs of the modelling work to allow interested parties to evaluate the assumptions and recommendations. Clarity around this information builds public trust in the value of the modelling process and helps build social consensus on the value of different energy futures. 

Assumptions

Detailed assumptions are available in the reports, including economic, population, operational and capital costs and learning rates. 

The IPEP outlines multiple scenarios in three sets to examine the headline impacts of different policy scenarios and the detailed impacts of sensitivity assumptions,such as excluding carbon capture and storage (CCS), changing the total emissions cap, and examining the impact of a changed discount factor.  

To examine the outputs in detail, you can use the interactive charts in Tableau, which allow comparisons between the scenarios on all key output parameters. You can also download the underlying data for each of the graphs from each page, enabling more direct comparison or integration into other modelling projects. 

The model outputs allow you to examine a variety of output parameters and to compare them between the model scenarios. These parameters (see below) are linked directly to the relevant Tableau pages. All scenario model outputs ensure adequate supply to meet demand and are optimised to reduce costs whilst still meeting the constraints provided.

Energy supply

The makeup, efficiency and use of energy are key elements of integrated energy planning. 

  • Final energy demand: Energy is transformed throughout the system, and some energy is lost with each transformation. The final energy describes how each sector consumes this energy. In all scenarios, the rate of electrification increases, and in general this increases the efficiency of the energy system. 

  • Electricity supply: Higher electrification rates imply a need for more electricity. Exactly what provides the energy for the electricity system is guided by the Integrated Resource Plan, but modelling different future supply and demand scenarios that include non-electricity sectors obviously has implications for the electricity supply. 

Energy costs

  • All energy costs: This is a measure of the capital and operational expenditure at a national level on the energy used by all sectors. 

  • Electricity system costs: Whilst actual household and business electricity costs depend on the tariff structure imposed by the regulator and municipalities; the baseline price is derived from the overall cost of the electricity system. 

Economy

  • GDP & energy intensity: GDP as a developmental indicator is often (and justifiably) contested, nevertheless it is used in this way. 

  • Inequality:​

    • Palma ratio: This measure of inequality is defined as the share of income received by the richest 10% of the population to that received by the poorest 40%. 

    • Income deciles: Change income over time for each income decile. Also available as a log graph. 

  • Progressive growth (change in income groups): The potential for South Africans to lift themselves out of poverty and achieve better livelihoods is a key element of the National Development Plan and broader societal goals. This indicator tracks the impact of different energy pathways on income groups.

Employment

Energy has an essential role to play in turning around South Africa’s high levels of unemployment. Firstly, the sector is a large employer, and employer, and it underpins the viability of all the sectors of the economy. All employment is tracked in different education groups to help evaluate the need for training and skills upliftment  

  • Whole economy employment: Growth in employment is a critical developmental indicator, and the SATIMGE model enables tracking of this across all scenarios. 

  • Energy sector employment: This is vital to measure the potential for a just transition. While the model is not spatially disaggregated, it does give a sense of the potential for the energy sector to absorb and expand employment in the sector.

Transport

  • Passenger and freight shifts: Changing transport is critical for both environmental and social needs, enabling economic growth and access to opportunities for all South Africans. As an inherently energy- and infrastructure-intensive sector, planning for and incentivising changes here has large knock-on effects. 

Environment

One major shortcoming of the draft national IEPs to date is that they do not consider national commitments to decarbonisation, the impacts of pollution, and other critical elements of environmental justice. Although the Illustrative People’s Energy Plan does not make internal model decisions on this basis, there was a strong call in the Ideal Energy Scenario to track and consider these impacts.  

  • CO2 emissions: This is the measure of whether the necessary net-zero CO2 emissions target required to align with a below 2 °C climate warming is achieved. The measure is economy wide, not just for the energy sector. 

  • Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions: There are several non-CO2 greenhouse gases that also need to be curtailed by 2070, but the total warming impact of South Africa’s emissions depends on both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions. Again, this is tracked for the whole economy, not just the energy sector. 

  • Air pollution: Sulphur dioxide, nitrous oxides, and particulate matter (soot and small smoke particles) place a very heavy burden on people’s health. These outputs provide a means of assessing the overall impact of different scenarios on this critical outcome. 

  • Water usage by the energy system: In a water-scarce country, the amount of water used by the energy system (including in mining) is notable. These graphs compare the direct water usage of the energy system, but not the upstream usage. Note: green hydrogen has a significant water footprint.  

  • Land used by renewable energy: It is important to track the spatial footprint of RE which can be extensive. One can reduce the impact through rooftop PV, co-location with agriculture (termed agrivoltaics) and through the integration of agriculture and/or nature conservation on wind farms.

Household energy

  • Household energy use by income group and fuel source. A key call for the Ideal Energy Scenario was a shift to modern energy sources at a household level, as well as an increase in the provision of free basic electricity. In other scenarios, the use of energy is guided exclusively by price and availability within the economy.

Key for graphs

In the Tableau pages each scenario is designated by a code. The table below specifies each of the scenarios, and the underlying constraints and assumptions for each of the scenarios is available in the final report on page 7.

Set 1: Reference Cases

IEP-1a-REF-UNCONS Reference - Unconstrained
IEP-1b-REF-NZ08GT Reference - Net Zero 8 Gt limit

Set 2: Policy Scenarios

IEP-2a-POL-BIGGAS Big Gas
IEP-2b-POL-GRNHYD Green Hydrogen
IEP-2c-POL-GRNTRA Green Transport
IEP-2d-POL-EFFNCY Energy efficiency
IEP-2e-POL-SOCIAL Social Provisioning

Set 3: Ideal People’s Energy Scenario + Sensitivities

IEP-3a-SCN-IDEALS Ideal Scenario
IEP-3b-SEN-GHG9GT 9Gt CO₂ limit
IEP-3c-SEN-GHG7GT 7Gt CO₂ limit
IEP-3d-SEN-NOCCST No CCS
IEP-3e-SEN-LOLOCL Low Localisation
IEP-3f-SEN-ECTL29 Early CTL Phase Out
IEP-3g-SEN-ECTL45 Late CTL Phase Out
IEP-3h-SEN-LOWFFP Low Fossil Fuel Prices
IEP-3k-SEN-LOWDRT Low Discount Rate
IEP-3m-SEN-HIGDRT High Discount Rate
IEP-3n-SEN-HIGGXT Green Exports
IEP-3p-SEN-LOBATC Optimal battery learning rate